Virtual World Potential Sales

Massively Overpowered has an article about a surprising purchase of an in game rifle. See: ONE-OF-A-KIND ENTROPIA UNIVERSE RIFLE. Will we ever see such high priced items in Project Sansar?

One of the problems in Second Life™ is the copyboting. It isn’t just a problem for those of us in Second Life. It is a problem for anyone placing content on the web or digital media in general.

In SL there is no such thing as one of a kind… not in the sense of ‘things’. Certainly a rifle going for US$51,000 would draw a swam of copyboters that soon would be marketing knockoffs and driving the price down.

Will Sansar be any different? With the design focus on content creators, I think so. I doubt digital content in Sansar will be any safer on a technical level. But, the plan to have build rights dependent on the users’ level of ID will make it easier to clean out bad apples.

That may make it possible for creators to get a better price for their creations in Sansar.

Also, the market is going to change because of Virtual Reality Headsets, at least for the next few years. Tweak Town is pointing out a projection that PC games will out sell console games by a BILLION dollars, reversing the trend seen for several  years. (Ref) There are other opinions, but the general size of the PC gaming market is expected to be US$29 billion and growing.

Biz Report relates a 2013 projection by Juniper Research saying by 2016 we would see in-app purchases top $3 billion. The market was to grow by a factor of 10 in 4 years. In early 2015 eMarketer was reporting that in-app purchases would top $3 billion in 2015. (ref) It is too early to know the total sales for 2015, but from what we have seen the projection was exceeded.

PC sales are still dropping, in general. Those that think they know are projecting a 8±% drop in sales through 2016. None of those I read talking decrease mention virtual reality or its affect on PC sales. Whether this is on their radar or 2016 is just too soon for it to be a factor, I can’t say.

Hearing all the predictions for VR sales that alone should force an uptick in PC sales. But… on the PC computer sales side few seem to have noticed or consider VR a factor, or I’m just not seeing the right reports. Juniper Research, a big name in the gaming market, is predicting that game sales alone will push computer sales upward increasing through 2018. (ref) Being into gaming they are aware of VR and its potential. I can’t say they are right, but I think they are.

The 2016 elections in the USA offer the possibility of a change toward free market ideas and the resulting economic boom that always follows a shift away from socialist ideas. If that happens, will fewer people play games as they go back to work or will more people be able to buy computers and play games? I’m pretty sure no one knows. Historically any increase in discretionary income has been good for the gaming market.

From all these factors I think content creators will have an improving future. Those creating content for Sansar may fair better than those marketing only in Second Life. The potential appears to be there.

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