In June 2013 HB was reporting user stats for the ‘other’ worlds as:
- InWorldz: 7,229 active users
- OSGrid: 3,416 active users
- Avination: 3,104 active users
- Island Oasis: 1,167 active users
- Metropolis: 1,045 active users
- Kitely: 628 active users
- Craft World: 569 active users
- 3rd Rock Grid: 426 active users
- German Grid: 387 active users
- Logicamp: 226 active users
That is 18,197 total active users across that set of worlds. I’ll skip debating how many of those in, say, In-Worldz, can also be found in OSGrid. There is duplication. We have no good information on the amount of duplication.
Second Life has, or at least is said to have, 1 million active users per month. We can assume that the Lab presents their numbers with some degree of spin. But, I suspect the other grids do too. So, I think they are comparable numbers. Plus we are ignoring duplicate users in the OpenSim numbers.
18k is 1.8% of the SL million. So, if I am selling L$1,000/month on the SL Market Place, I would presumably sell L$18 on Kitely. As Kitely Market is just starting out and not yet selling to other grids yet, my market will consist of about 628 customers or 0.06% if the SL market. I would on average sell L$1 worth of goods every 2 months… that sucks.
With Time…
The idea is that with time more grids will join the market. Of course merchants will sell to them to increase the possibility of sales. Or will they?
We never know what people will do and predicting is notoriously inaccurate. But, we can see the reasons that suggest what people may do and those are fairly predictive when well understood.
There is a security issue in the OpenSim grids. The Lab has a hard enough time protecting Intellectual Property rights, copyright, trademarks, and etc. People in SL complain about theft all the time. OpenSim is worse off.
In SL and at Kitely they control the servers through which everything must pass. That is not the case on all grids. I can run my own simulator and have, not recently. So, just as viewers are hacked and used to steal content so too servers can be used to steal content.
While Kitely servers respect the No Export permissions, once a merchant allows their products to be exported to other grids they start to lose control of their product. You can expect some safeguards to be in place. But, this is a new system and I have no doubt it will be exploited. I doubt I am the only one that thinks that.
So, getting merchants to go for it is going to be an uphill battle.
As was pointed out in other articles, there may be a tendency for other grid operators to avoid signing up as it would decrease the need for land in their grid. In world stores would not be needed. So, Kitely has a plan for revenue sharing. They think the revenue from Market sales will offset the loss from land sales/leasing. AFAIK there is no objective market data that confirms that theory. It is possible. But, most things are. Whether it will work out that way is yet to be seen.
This means grid operators may or may not have incentive to join. I would think a grid Like OSGrid would sign up as their revenue is donation based and there is no land sales that feeds the grid operator. But, any grid that is just making it on their land fees is unlikely to take the chance.
Demographics
One also has to think about who makes up the 18,197 active users. It is hard to get the real demographics of OpenSim users. Most of what read is OpenSim users’ opinions and personal experiences. Those opinions are that most of the people in OpenSim grids are creative types. They make their own stuff. Thus they are more likely merchants than customers.
This is where SL excels. They have a ton of customers.
Summary
This is an important step in the development of OpenSim grids. I see it as foundation infrastructure. I do not see it as motivational fuel to move people whether merchants or customers to OpenSim.
I am hoping Kitely can build a great virtual store. I hope that they work out a way to sell into Second Life and compete with the SL Market Place. But, I see no advantage to SL allowing that to happen. So, I don’t expect to see much help from the Lab. Nor do I see SL merchants being willing to sell into an open-export-OK grids.
Until this market is proven to be safe and profitable, I think it likely to remain the province of pioneers.