The data Warmers use most often comes from the UN’s IPCC, International Panel on Climate Change. In an ironic twist 20+ years into the debate more and more of the data used by skeptics comes from… yep the IPCC. If you are one that believes manmade warming is killing the planet, your beliefs are likely being fed by the mainstream media and the UN. If you’re a skeptic, you are either believing your friends or you are digging through reports and skeptic’s web sites.
You could look up the 1990 IPCC report and compare its predictions for coming years. We now have 20+ years of actual data since the report was written to look at. We can see how well the IPCC did at predicting the future, not very well. But, then you would have to get into the data and see how the IPCC has been adjusting it. Start with SurfaceStations.org to get the background on why adjustments are needed and in which direction adjustments should be made.
Surface Stations was a grass roots citizen run check of the United States Historical Climatological Network (USHCN) and Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) surface stations. Read the site’s about page. Even the National Research Council (NRC) in 1997 called for an assessment of the US system of weather data collection. In 1999 they concluded the system was inadequate (US$34 – site includes a reference finder and the summary is free).
The interesting thing about this survey of climate sites is the photographs and documentation.
Photos courtesy of Anthony Watts, www.surfacestations.org
The top photo shows how a climate station is supposed to look per NOAA specifications. The lower photo shows how too many of the stations look. Because of all the influences around the lower image’s measuring site, data from this site would need to be adjusted.
If you want to skip the research and go to the results, see: NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments.
The take away from the IPCC report predictions comparison to ‘adjusted’ temperature readings is: The scientific models of 1990’s First Assessment Report forecast temperatures would rise fast, reaching alarming levels by 2010. The mercury refused to cooperate with the warming hypothesis that year. In 2012, temperatures also were frostier than the generous assumptions in each of the group’s four previous reports.
Even though the official charts [from IPCC] show no significant warming trend in the past 15 years, the planet may be even cooler than the IPCC figures suggest. Mr. Watts, who runs the Watts Up With That website, points out that IPCC is using adjusted data. In a forthcoming scientific paper, he demonstrates that improper placement of weather stations has resulted in the temperature increase being overstated by 92 percent.
There are enormous sums of money at risk. So, get the leaked IPCC preliminary draft report before it disappears. Download IPCC Second Order Draft of AR5. The chart of most interest (opening image) is in Chapter 1 page 39.
I wonder how many people notice the different tactics in use by the Warmers and Skeptics? See Chilling climate-change news for the typical skeptic’s article on this leak. See Human role in climate change now virtually certain: leaked IPCC report and Misrepresentation of Leaked Review Draft IPCC Climate Assessment Report Shows Intellectual Bankruptcy of Global Warming Denialists.
In the current round of debate skeptics are talking about the recently leaked data and how it does not correspond to the 1990 IPCC projections. The skeptics are arguing that for 20+ years the IPCC has been exaggerating and this is another example of it.
Warmers say skeptics don’t understand the leaked draft and deny what it says. The Warmers talk about what the IPCC draft says and are not bothering to address what skeptics actually say, current measurements don’t match what was predicted.
Skeptics question all the data since the 2009 Climategate data fraud scandal.
An interesting development in the debate is satellite temperature data. You can read Satellite measurements of warming in the troposphere and Trenberth takes on UAH satellite data in a new paper to see how complex it is to figure out temperature from the satellite data. What most Warmers aren’t discussing is the data has discrepancies yet to be resolved. Skeptics refer to the old data, early 2000’s, to back cooling claims. Neither side seems to want to be completely honest, which is why we have to dig through all the data and math.
While much of the mainstream media is reporting news like No Snow, No Jobs, No Fun serious meteorologists are reporting stories like 75% or more of the US will be snow covered by end of year. The snowiest years in the USA are 1977 most ever and 2010 second, 2011 third, 2008 forth, and 2003 fifth. Four of the most snowy years are post 2000 in spite of what the IPCC said would happen. Already 2012 is at about eight snowiest or equal to 1982. 1981 is the least snowy year in the last 40+ years.
Don’t believe the mainstream media. The truth is out there.