Summary
When I wrote the index to the MetaReality podcast I noted some of the challenges to getting information about what is needed to improve player retention. Also that SL is not the only MMO that has the same challenge.
As one reads through the lists of suggestions one may notice some are changes to Second Life. Things like dropping support for older machines are to allow the graphics to improve. Some state improved graphics would improve player retention. But, we have loads of statistical data from numerous games to show that improving graphics in a game does not increase player retention.
Graphics quality is something that seems to affect whether people will sign up for a game. But, it does nothing to improve player retention. An excellent example is Blue Mars. BM had much better graphics than SL and it could not attract or hold users. That affect has been noticed in numerous games.
Learning the game is an obstacle to entry. So, the tutorials and how they are presented can ease entry to the game. But once in the game, knowing how to work it does not increase player retention. Again we have statistics and numerous examples to look at.
Poor tutorials that are hard to find will frustrate some number of players. But, other factors contribute more player retention. Also, if there are good interactions between players, people will get information normally placed in tutorials from other players.
A number of suggestions are about fixing various problems. If all those problems were fixed how much would it help player retention? Think about it. We have people that have played with SL for years and endured all the problems that have been fixed for years before the fixes were implemented. We have seen hundreds of fixes implemented and there is no corresponding increase in player retention.
A number of suggestions have to do with helping people find the things they are interested in. But, did the addition of the Destination Guide improve player retention? Maybe. But we don’t have any hard data to say. But, we do know that SL still has a player retention problem. So, we can assume the guide is not the answer. I suspect it is a good step in the right direction and that it helps.
A number of suggestions deal with how people hook up in SL. Several people relate experiences with mentors, people that choose to help others. Some suggest getting new people to those with similar interests. Several ways to do that are suggested.
Chun-Yuen Teng and Lada A. Adamic of the School of Information University of Michigan wrote a paper on a study they did in Second Life. It appeared in: Proceedings of the Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media. The study’s abstract says:
“User retention is important to the success of online social media, particularly in virtual world settings where users shape one another’s online experience. We study a rich set of variables, including social network and group membership, chatting, and transactions, in order to predict which users will stay and which ones will leave. We find that simple variables directly measuring the intensity and diversity of a user’s interaction with others are most predictive.”
The study shows the type of interaction is less important than that it happens. So, sorting people into sailing, flying, racing, or whatever is less important than getting people talking and interacting. If one can get people talking, they will presumably find their way to the right groups, or at least LEARN HOW TO FIND the group they are interested in.
So, while I think better graphics, performance, search, market place, Destination Guide, and improved personal interest lists would make SL more enjoyable, I do not see them being major contributors to player retention, if they cannot increase player-to-player interaction.
Those of us that are hanging around have formed relationships with people in the game. Not everyone stays for the same reason. But, the Teng & Adamic’s study holds true for the majority of players.
If interaction is the key, then better tutorials and simpler controls may be counterproductive by reducing the need for interaction. Some balance of tutorials and complexity with social interaction is the likely key to player retention. I see the person-to-person interaction as the primary key to retention.
Things like; better removal of problem (poisonous) people is likely to improve people’s experience and allow freer interactions. Improved means of finding and contacting people with similar interests is likely to improve personal interactions.
Facebook and now Google+ are all about being able to interact with others. Facebook’s original goal was to help college kids hook up, which is all about interacting. The tools and interfaces may look different from app to app or game to game, but allowing people to work together is what makes things work and increases player retention.
Loki Eliot come to nearly the same conclusions in a post on his blog: Answering Rodviks question #SL
Gwyneth Llewelyn has an article analyzing player retention: What makes us return to Second Life? She makes a good point for focusing on existing users vs new users.
I think the best idea is the one of having general groups created by LL for building, fashion, etc.. that would be easily available from the start. The new resident could ask any question and I am sure he would have lots of answers from more experienced residents in seconds without them being necesarily mentors or what ever.
The likelihood of getting a feature like ‘special groups’ is inversely proportional to how much maintenance labor is required by the Lab. Don’t expect to see the Lab making groups they have to police.
The need for a way noobs can appreciate SL with *their* machine is critical. The world of computers is moving away from my beloved wired desktops and toward wireless laptops and tablets. The newbie on the Metareality podcast did not appreciate SL until he was persuaded to buy a desktop. I suspect a very high percentage of people who sign up and then leave just do not have adequate hardware. I would not be here for long if I had to wait minutes for the area around me to rez and if I could hardly move. Some kind of “cloud” service? A stripped down, feature lite viewer? I do not have the answer, but something must be done, and soon!
Right now mobile devices are popular. In a recent article the creator of the Myst series of games stated that mobile devices could be ‘immersive’. I seriously doubt that. I think that alone will create demand for desktop gaming computers.
Television screens are about to double the resolution of HD units. Plus we are seeing more 3D content becoming available for TV. Mobile devices are unlikely to ever be able to compete in a 3D environment. So, another reason desktop units will be in some demand.
The data needed for hi-rez games is enormous. It looks like communication tech will get us to where mobile devices will be able to deal with large amounts of data. SSD tech is growing and likely to provide the quantities of data storage needed.
So, the limit is likely going to be in how immersive people find mobile devices vs their home theaters.
Many years ago, I was active on one of those old text-only MUDs.
Immersion in a world doesn’t depend on fancy graphics, but SL does.
I suspect that mobile devices are different enough that they will need something new before they can support VR, something with less-intensive graphics and not keyboard dependent.
Good point on the MUD games.
Gwyneth Llewelyn wrote a good article on the change in how generations use imagination. Immersion for the current couple of generations is going to be different from the previous generations. I doubt MUD games will ever again be considered immersive.