When it comes to currency exchange Americans tend to be ignorant of how it works. Europeans that travel are much more knowledgeable, at least in my experience. That knowledge difference seems to have led to some conspiracy theories about the recent price of Linden dollars.
The image is the list of pending buy and sell orders placed in the Lindex market as of 9AM PT 5/24.
It is the cost of Linden dollars people are on about. Right now, if you are a buyer, the price of Linden dollars is the best it has been in some time. On the other hand if you are a merchant, the price is hurting you more than any time in recent memory.
Today when I went to look at L$ prices, inspired by Hamlet’s article Insider Attributes Massive Linden Dollar Fluctuations to Some Large Second Life Businesses Rapidly Liquidating L$ Holdings (Land Barons, Say?), I found the current unmet buy price was L$277/US$1. I think that is a deal. So, I placed an order for about US$20 worth at L$276. I’ll get my order filled ahead of those offering at L$277.
You can see in the second image that the April 2014 (about the 15th) price was L$256/US$1. I am sort of getting L$21 per US$ for free… This is about an 8% drop in prices.
In RL US$1 went for £0.5926 (GBP) in April 2014. Today US$1 goes for £0.6836. That is a 15% change. So, if you had put all your British Pounds into Linden dollars for those two years you would be ahead by 9%. I don’t recommend doing that. My point is what is happening with the Linden currency is not big a deal compared to real life.
Does liquidation by a number of merchants mean anything? YES. They want RL usable currency for some reason. We have nothing to indicate what THEIR reason is. Those into conspiracies are imagining whatever strange notion comes into their minds.
Have you ever wondered where ideas come from? I tend to wonder why people hold onto those ideas that just pop into their mind.
If you are wondering if you can get a better deal, the answer is maybe. There is only L$317k (US$1,143.31) waiting to be filled at L$278. There isn’t any serious money sitting until you reach L$280. So, chances are good you can get a deal. I hate waiting. So, I’m willing to take less of a deal. And it worked. Before I finished writing this my order was been filled and I can go shopping.
The L$80k @ L$277 is already down to L$40k. The L$278 has been eaten down 100k. That all happened in less than an hour. So, if I had been willing to wait a day or two I might have gotten a way better deal.
Are you wondering if someone is manipulating the price? Yes, thousands of us are. It is how the free market works. But, is someone ‘unfairly’ manipulating the price? Someone is probably trying. But, IMO that takes more money, time, and effort than it is worth. However, you are free to place and cancel orders as you please and take advantage of their efforts.
What about a trend? If merchants had insider information, like Sansar is going to be awesome and 3 billion people already signed up for the pretrial (I’m making that up). Then there might be large numbers of people selling their L$ to prepare for a mass exodus. But, how plausible is that scenario? In my thinking, not very. The more I hear the more likely I think SL is going to be around another 10+ years.
In RL we have currency speculators, they try to make a buck using their best educated guess as to what is going to happen in the future. The education comes from studying human nature, market fundamentals, and politics. But, there are billions of us acting far outside what they can predict. Today I saw an article, realized there is a deal on L$, and made a purchase. Totally unpredictable. But, in a large group we can precisely calculate the number of impulse buyers in a given time period for a given set of conditions. I just don’t see the SL market being large enough to do that. So, I’m not buying into the conspiracies.
If you need some L$’s buy them. Keep in mind that the price may get better. Remember. The price may get worse. No body knows. Everyone is betting on what it will do next.
http://gridsurvey.com/lindex.php — this sites also a good reference.